Escalation behavior occurs when individual decision-makers repeatedly invest time, money, and other resources into a failing project. A conceptual model of escalation behavior based on project, organizational, social and psychological forces was developed, and a 75-item measurement instrument was constructed to assess the various dimensions. The model was tested using data collected from a random sample of North Carolina Community College administrators. A LISREL measurement model analysis provided support for the four escalation forces. Two structural models were tested, leading to (...) support for a mediational model for escalation behavior. The most important contributor to Escalation was the Psychological force. (shrink)

It is always possible to construct a real function φ, given random quantities X and Y with continuous distribution functions F and G, respectively, in such a way that φ(X) and φ(Y), also random quantities, have both the same distribution function, say H. This result of De Finetti introduces an alternative way to somehow describe the `opinion' of a group of experts about a continuous random quantity by the construction of Fields of coincidence of opinions (FCO). A Field of coincidence (...) of opinions is a finite union of intervals where the opinions of the experts coincide with respect to that quantity of interest. We speculate on (dis)advantages of Fields of Opinion compared to usual `probability' measures of a group and on their relation with a continuous version of the well-known Allais' paradox. (shrink)